Future Ship Emission Scenarios with a Focus on Ammonia Fuel

Current efforts by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to decarbonize shipping sector have gained momentum, although exact path achieve this goal is currently unclear. However, it can be safely assumed that alternative cleaner and zero-carbon fuels will key components in strategy. In work, three ship emission scenarios for 2025, 2040, 2050 were developed cover area of North Baltic Seas. They aim at a fundamental transition usage marine towards ammonia as mainly used fuel 2050, via an intermediate step 2040 with liquefied natural gas main fuel. Additionally, expected trends developments implemented, i.e., fleet growth vessel size number. Efficiency improvements included are accordance Energy Design Index IMO. The created using novel method based on modifications virtual fleet. vessels subject decommission renewal cycles adapt them scenario’s target year. Emissions renewed calculated Modular Ship Emission Modeling System (MoSES). With respect engine technology, two cases considered. first case deals compression ignition engines oil pilot fuel, while second treats spark hydrogen considered more feasible until 2050. Reductions compared 2015 40% CO2 emissions. equivalents only reduced 22%, difference resulting from increased N2O NOX emissions 39%, different PM SO2 between 73% 84% same estimated NH3 slip ammonia-fueled ships Seas was 930 Gg For technology advanced, reductions generally stronger smaller.